Thursday, July 14, 2016

Gulfstream Thursday Preview

A pair of carryovers will be among the attractions at Gulfstream Park when it begins a four-day race week on Thursday.
First post is 1:15 p.m. for the nine-race card.

In the first race, there is a carryover of $11,570.39   on the Super Hi-5.  There were no winning tickets on the Super Hi-5 on the last two races on Sunday, the most recent race day at Gulfstream.

Thursday’s carryover on the Rainbow 6 is $68,674.15. It is on the fourth through ninth races.

The featured eighth race is six furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up, with a $43,000 purse and a $16,000 optional claiming price.

Cult Classic is the likely favorite in a six-horse field.  She has a win and two second place finishes (both at Gulfstream) in four career starts, and the formidable trainer-jockey tandem of Ralph Nicks and Tyler Gaffalione.

Forecast for Turf
Five races (the odd numbered ones) are scheduled for turf with the rail at 115 feet.

According to The Weather Channel, the chance of thunderstorms is 50 percent at the start of racing hours and 20 percent near  the end of racing hours in Hallandale Beach, where Gulfstream is located.
Rainfall has been below average in South Florida this summer. Gulfstream has gone 19 race days, since June 10, without having to take any races off the turf.

On Friday, Gulfstream will have ten races with first post of 1:15 p.m.  On Saturday, it will have 12 races with first post of 12:45 p.m.

There are no stakes races scheduled for any of the three days starting Thursday.

Entries for Sunday will be drawn and announced on Thursday afternoon. The condition book shows ten races with no stakes races.
Super Hi-5
The Super Hi-5 requires picking a race’s first five finishers in correct order. If there are no tickets with  that correct order, the race’s entire pool (new bets plus carryover) rolls into the next race with seven or more starters. There are no consolation payoffs, such as four places out of five.

It is a $1 minimum bet with an 18 percent takeout.

Thursday’s first race has seven entrants and barring any scratches will have the Super Hi-5.  It is a $12,500 claiming race at five furlongs on turf for fillies and mares three-years-old and up.  The purse is $18,000.

In a seven-horse field, a key is finding which two horses to put into the win and place spots—or go with a single on top—and find a horse to toss from consideration for fifth place.

Glass of Wine, trained by Gustavo Delgado, and Crime Buzz, trained by David Fawkes, are the two likely favorites.  Leaving either out of the top spot  is a risk, but would free up some money for bottom holes.

Red Aquia, Awesomendensome and long shot Siccar should be considered for the third spot.

It helps to look at Gulfstream’s fourth race  on April 28—also a  $12,500 claimer at five furlongs on turf.  The two Thursday favorites and Awesomendensome were part of the seven horse field.

Crime Buzz finished third, 1 ½ lengths ahead of  Awesomendensome who finished a neck ahead of Glass of 

Glass of Wine and Awesomendensome dueled for the lead entering the  turn, but then weakened.  Crime Buzz passed those two, but was not able to catch winner Skirts on Fire and was passed by late-running Little Darlings.

On April 28, Glass of Wine was the even-money favorite. Crime Buzz was 6-1 and Awesomendensome was 16-1.

Since then Awesomendensome finished  third in her only race, at five furlongs on turf at Gulfstream.   Crime Buzz has a win in a five furlong “off the turf” race and a fifth place finish at five furlongs on turf—both in $10,000 claimers at  Gulfstream.

Glass of Wine has not raced since April 28, her fourth race  this year.  Prior to that her 2016 record was two wins and a second place finish—all at five furlongs on turf at Gulfstream.

Fawkes trained Glass of Wine in those three races for breeder and owner Thomasina Coporolla. In the last of those races, Delgado claimed the 4-year-old Glass of Wine for $16,000 for Gds Racing,

Gaffalione has the mount on Crime Buzz for Fawkes, in post four.  They are the leading jockey and trainer in wins through eight days of Gulfstream’s summer meet.

Glass of Wine is in post seven, which should enable jockey Leonel Reyes to strategically use her speed and have a clear view of the field.

Betting History
It is likely that   $50,000 or more will be bet on the Super Hi-5 in Thursday’s first race.

Bettors have had three days to handicap, the carryover is almost $12,000 and the field is short.

Consider this Super Hi-5 history from the last two months:
* Last Wednesday July 7 there was a carryover of $5,237.30 coming in from Monday July 4.the most recent race day/
Betting on the Super Hi-5 was $31,804 in the first race The bet was hit, paying $2,087.80 on a $1 wager. El Rustico, at 3-1, won the race.  Horses at single digit odds also finished second through fifth.

*On Wednesday May 21 there was a $32,146 carryover  from 
Sunday May 18.

Bettors poured $234,801 into the Super Hi-5 pool.  The 6-5 favorite Sonaheir won, followed by two other short-odds horses. That produced a $416.00  payoff on $1 bet on the Super Hi-5.

On races with no carryover, Super Hi-5 betting at Gulfstream is usually around $1,000—a range often considered betting against yourself.  When the carryover keeps growing, the Super Hi-5 can become a lottery-like bet.
--Jim Freer

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please post your comment to our blog. It will be moderated and approved in a timely manner, then posted. Thanks for reading !

HorseRacing FLA staff