Saturday, May 21, 2016

Preakness 2014 and 2015: Our Betting History

By Jim Freer

Here are reviews of the 2014 Preakness and 2015 Preakness, along with breakdowns of the bets we recommended bets on those races.

It is Saturday morning and we are monitoring what, as expected, is turning out to be a rainy day at Pimlico in Baltimore.  Rain is forecast throughout the day with temperatures in the high 50s.  According to the Weather Channel, there is a 65 percent chance of rain late in the afternoon.

First post is 10:30 a.m. Eastern at Pimlico.  After we notice any track bias we will publish our suggested Preakness bets at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.

And when you look back at the last two runnings of the Preakness, weather is among recent history lessons to consider in handicapping today’s race.Preakness16ColPosJPG300

The 2014 and 2015 renewals had a heavy favorite coming in from a win in the Kentucky Derby.  It is the same this afternoon with Nyquist.

Both favorites, California Chrome in 2014 and American Pharoah in 2015, (photo on home page) won the Preakness.

In each year, a late-running double digit-odds horse finished second.  Cherry Wine or Fellowship could fit that role this afternoon if either Nyquist or Exaggerator has a  bad race.

The 2014 Preakness was run on a fast track. The 2015 Preakness was run in the rain on a track listed as sloppy.

2014 Preakness

California Chrome took the lead coming out of the final turn and won in 1:54,84.

Ride on Curlin finished second by 1 ½ lengths, rallying from ninth place after a half mile. He finished 6 ½ lengths ahead of Social Inclusion.

California Chrome was the 1-2 favorite.  Social Inclusion was second betting choice at 5-1 and Social Inclusion, at 10-1, was third lowest in the ten-horse field.

3 – California Chrome   3.00   3.00  2.40

10 -Ride On Curlin                 5.60  3.80

8 –  Social Inclusion                        3.40

2 –  General A Rod

$2 exacta – $18.20; $2 trifecta — $76.00; $2 superfecta–$347.60

Our bets – We recommended $42.00 in bets. They  paid $65.60.

Our winning bets included a pair of $1 exactas and a $1 trifecta box.

We made the  closer Ride on  Curlin  one  of  our two  feature horses, along with California  Chrome.

Ride on Curlin finished second in the Arkansas Derby and then rallied to finish seventh in the Preakness  after a troubled trip.

He was closing ground on California Chrome and for a brief instance it seemed he might win the Preakness.  That would have given us an exacta and a  trifecta with much higher prices.

2015 Preakness

American Pharoah, the 4-5 favorite, took an early lead and was never seriously challenged as he won by seven lengths over 28-1 shot Tale of Verve. The winning time was 1:58.46 on the sloppy track.

Tale of Verve rallied from eighth and last place after a half mile and finished 1 ½ lengths ahead of Divining Rod (12-1).

1 – American Pharoah     3.80 3.402.80
5 – Tale of Verve
7  – Divining Rod

2 –  Dortmund

$2 exacta –$124.20; $2 trifecta — $985.00; $2 superfecta — $3,813.80

Our Bets: We suggested $50.00 in bets. They paid $70.00.

The profit was from having a $1 exacta that paid $62.10.  That came from a part wheel that had American Pharoah and Firing Line (second in the Kentucky Derby) on top and those two horses, Tale of Verve and two others on the bottom.

Tale of Verve was coming off an impressive maiden win at 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland.

We made sure to include him in the exacta largely because he is trained by Dallas Stewart, who has had considerable success with long shots hitting the board in big races,

In 2013 Stewart sent out Golden Soul, at 34-1, to a second place finish on a sloppy and sealed track in the Kentucky Derby at  Churchill Downs.  Orb, the 5-1 favorite, won the race.

In the 2014 Kentucky Derby, the Stewart-trained Commanding Curve was sent off at 37-1. He rallied from 17th place in mid-race and finished second to the 5-2 favorite California Chrome on a sloppy track. We HAD A $1 exacta that paid $170.00.

Preakness 2014 and 2015: Our Betting History

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