Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Gulfstream: Carryover of Almost $18,000 Spurs Interest in Super Hi 5

By Jim Freer

Gulfstream Park will begin its Wednesday card with a carryover of $17,887.39 on its Rolling Super Hi 5, on which there are payoffs only on tickets that have the first five finishers in correct order.

Today’s carryover is the result of there being no Super Hi 5 winning tickets on any of the last three races this past Sunday.

Our research indicates that Wednesday’s start-of-day carryover is the largest since Gulfstream introduced its novel version of the Super Hi 5 on Dec. 5 at the opening of its championship meet.

Super Hi 5 betting will begin on the first race, with post of 12:35 p.m. It likely will start out heavy and could become a frenzy if nobody hits the first race,

Large Handle Expected

We are projecting that $50,000 or more will be bet on the Super Hi 5 in the first race. That is based on recent volumes on exotic bets early in the day at Gulfstream, some other recent Super HI 5 bets and the popularity of carryovers in the track’s Rainbow 6 bet.Horses to Watch

Gulfstream’s Super Hi 5 is a minimum of $1 per combination bet. The takeout is 18 percent.

There is a Super Hi 5 in every race at Gulfstream, and there are no consolation payouts in situations such as tickets with the first four places in a race where there are no tickets that have the first five finishers in order.

Tampa Bay Downs this season has added a rolling Super High 5 with the same key features as Gulfstream: every race with payout only on five-of-five; $1 minimum; 18 percent takeout.

Our research shows that Tampa Bay Downs this season has not had any end-of-day High 5 carryovers as large as Gulfstream’s of almost $18,000 from Sunday.

The two-day race break has given Gulfstream bettors two days to look over past performances for Wednesday’s first race, and even for some races after that.

Wednesday’s First Race

The first race is six furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up. It is a $6,250 claimer with a $15,000 purse. There are nine entrants.

The likely favorites are Starship Tammy, Samus and Starship Galaxy. They are all 3-year-olds. We will handicap the race this morning, after any scratches are announced.

Long-range handicapping similar to that on a Pick 5 or Pick 6 isn’t always sensible for a rolling Super Hi 5 bet. Basically, you have just 25 to 30 minutes in which you know whether or not there is a carryover and whether it is large enough to warrant a significant bet.

For several years, Gulfstream had a traditional High 5, one per day and on the last race. It seldom attracted more than $10,000 in bets, as most Gulfstream bettors put their end-of-day focus on multi-race exotics.

At its recent Gulfstream Park West meet, Gulfstream made the Super Hi 5 an every race bet with a 75-25 rollover. Gulfstream held the 40-day meet at Calder under a lease agreement with that track.

On each race there was a payout on the full Super Hi 5 pool, including any carryover, only if there were one or more tickets with all five positions correct.

Otherwise the tickets that came closest, such as first four spots, divided 75 percent of the race’s Super Hi 5 and 25 percent was added to the carryover.

The total betting on daily rolling Super Hi 5s was larger than on the previous last-race only Super Hi 5 set-up. Exact comparisons are not readily available.

There were several days at GP West when the rolling carryover built up over three or more races and led to very large Super Hi 5 betting.

Bettors at GP West, October 2015

Bettors at GP West, October 2015

One example, from Saturday Oct. 10, is explained in this Gulfstream news release:

“Gulfstream Park West’s Super Hi 5 returned $127,569.70 Saturday afternoon when a carryover built over four races on the popular new wager going into the 10th and final race of the day.

The carryover started building when the sixth race Super Hi 5 wasn’t hit. There was an $11,594 carryover going into the ninth race when Frontier Ranger lit up the tote board by winning and returning $98.40, bringing about a carryover of $58,528 going into the 10th and final race. Bettors wagered $231,341 into the last race Super Hi 5.”

Early this afternoon, Gulfstream bettors will be prepared for the Super Hi 5 rather than having to handicap on the fly.

Rainbow 6 Carryover

On Wednesday, Gulfstream will have a carryover of $33,124.14 on the Rainbow 6 on the last six races. It is a 20-cent only per combination bet.

Gulfstream pays out the full Rainbow 6 pool of the day’s bets (minus 20 percent takeout) plus the carryover only on days when there is just one ticket with all six winners.

On other days it divides 70 percent of the day’s Rainbow 6 bets (minus takeout) among tickets with the most winners and puts the other 30 percent into the carryover.

On Sunday the pool was $51,638. There were 26 tickets with all six winners, and each received $1,112.04. Gulfstream added $12,391 to the carryover, making it $33,124 for Wednesday,

Gulfstream: Carryover of Almost $18,000 Spurs Interest in Super Hi 5

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