Social Inclusion Heads Gulfstream Contingent in Preakness

by Jim Freer
16 May '14
(Note - This will be the first of our stories on Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, with much of the focus on horses that have raced at Gulfstream Park and on other Florida-related topics.)

On Saturday morning, we will have our Preakness predictions as we monitor Pimlico while at Gulfstream Park).

First, some thoughts on this year's Preakness: How the race shapes up, and what it might have been like if several top horses from Gulfstream Park had avoided injury and made it into the Triple Crown races.
The ten-horse Preakness field has four horses that ran at Gulfstream this year.  The lightly raced Social Inclusion, speedy and with a distance pedigree, will be the second betting choice behind Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome. Social Inclusion finished third in his stakes debut, the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on April 5. He led until around the sixteenth pole and wound up 3 lengths behind Wicked Strong and a nose behind Samraat. Wicked Strong edged Samraat by a nose for fourth place in the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby, both flattering Social Inclusion's Wood effort. Social Inclusion has post eight in the 1-3/16 mile Preakness, outside most of the other speed, and will be ridden by his regular jockey Luis Contreras.

Social Inclusion missed the Sir Bear Stakes at Gulfstream on May 3 because of a bone bruise in his right hind foot. But trainer Manny Azpurua said the colt is past that problem. This past Monday he had an ultra-fast 47.00 seconds workout for four furlongs at Pimlico. One widely-held scenario has Social Inclusion taking the lead around the final turn, with California Chrome on the move right behind him - setting up a potentially thrilling finish. General a Rod was a Gulfstream star. In three stakes races, he had a win, a second place finish and a third place finish. General a Rod finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby, after being forced to steady several times. He will be stalking the pace under Javier Castellano. Ring Weekend broke his maiden at Gulfstream, and later won the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2). Pablo Del Monte finished third and fourth in a pair of stakes at Gulfstream and third in the Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland. Ring Weekend and Pablo Del Monte both have early speed and likely will be part of a fast Preakness pace that sets up this scenario: It will be California Chrome's race to lose and Social Inclusion's race to win.  Or it could turn into late-running Ride on Curlin's big chance to finally pick up all of the pieces in a major stakes. It poured in Baltimore this morning and more rain is expected this afternoon. If the track is still wet on Saturday, past performances and breeding indicate that Ride on Curlin might be the horse with the most to benefit.

To win the Preakness, any of the other entrants will probably need a breakout race or a rebound to past form (e.g. General a Rod), combined with a sub-par race by California Chrome. Put all of that together, and you can understand why there is a view that California Chrome didn't beat much in the Kentucky Derby. and he is the best of a mediocre bunch.
Instead, we support this overview: California Chrome has developed and peaked at the right time, and his best may still be yet to come. Critics point to California Chrome's slow wining time of 2:03.66 and low (for the Kentucky Derby) Beyer Speed Figure of 97. The horse's backers point out that jockey Victor Espinoza allowed California Chrome to de-celerate in the final yards, in effect leaving gas in the tank for Pimlico. He won by 1-3/4 lengths over Commanding Curve who was still running strong after passing tiring horses. California Chrome's times in winning two Santa Anita stakes indicate he could have run faster if needed at Churchill Downs. He didn't need to because more than a half dozen of this year's top 2-year-olds are injured and were not in the Kentucky Derby.

Among this year's Gulfstream contingent now sidelined are: Constitution, winner of the Florida Derby (Grade 1); Cairo Prince, winner of the Holy Bull (Grade 2); Honor Code, winner of last year's Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct; and Top Billing, an early season star who has a late-running style. Several of those horses should be back for this summer stakes at tracks such as Monmouth Park and Saratoga. So should Wildcat Red, the winner of this year's Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream. Wildcat Red finished 18th in the Kentucky Derby after some heavy bumping early in the race, and came away with a cut on one leg and bruises on two other legs. Wildcat Red is healing quickly, said his trainer Jose Garoffalo who is giving the Gulfstream-based colt a break from training for several weeks.

Hopes are High for an End to Head-to-Head Racing in South Florida

by Jim Freer

Thursday, May 15, '14  -  Gulfstream Park, Calder Casino & Race Course and the Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent and  Protective Association are coming  down  the stretch in negotiating an agreement that would end the head-to-head weekend racing that the two tracks began last July.  

Officials of Gulfstream and officials of the horsemen’s group are providing  few details, but  are cautiously optimistic that a deal can be approved this month.  If that happens, the two South Florida tracks might  be able to halt their same-day racing as soon as this July.

 

Calder and its parent company Churchill Downs Inc.  (CDI) have declined to comment on the negotiations.

The major unresolved issue involves the often contentious  relationship between  tracks’ slot machines and their racing.

 

Calder, in Miami Gardens, over  the course of each year puts 12 percent of its net slot machine revenues into purses for its races. The agreement would reduce that payment to 10 percent of slot revenues, and the amount likely would fall from about $9 million to $7.5 million.

 

Calder’s slots revenues have been about $75 million in each  of Florida’s last two fiscal years, ending June 30, according to the Florida Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering.   That has led to payments of about $9 million per year for Calder race purses.

 

If those revenues stay in the $75 million range, the money for slot machines would fall to about $7.5 million at the  10 percent rate.

 

The slots revenues-to-race purses ratio would remain 10 percent at  Gulfstream.

 

The Florida HBPA, which has the annual purse contracts with each track, has indicated it will accept the plan.  But in return for less slots money from Calder, it is seeking some unspecified changes in its  agreements  with Gulfstream.

 

Requests by the Florida HBPA are being directed toward Gulfstream, which under the agreement would take over Calder’s racing operations through  a lease arrangement.  Calder, eight miles west of Gulfstream, would have racing approximately two months each  year and Gulfstream would have the remainder--with no overlap.

 

That would achieve the goal of the Florida HBPA, and almost everyone else in racing, of halting the head-to-head competition that began last July and is scheduled to continue through June 2015.

 

Gulfstream has confirmed  that  the deal, which it presented to the  horsemen April 28, has this basic framework:

* Gulfstream and  its parent Stronach Group would  lease  part of   Calder’s operations from Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI).   

 

*CDI would retain  ownership of Calder, including its casino.

 

* Calder would have racing  40 days,  probably in the fall, and  Gulfstream would race unopposed during the other weeks.

 

The agreement would be for six years. After approval by the tracks  and horsemen, it would require approval by the Florida DPMW.

 

Since last  summer, Calder has rejected  several offers under which  Gulfstream would have either bought or leased Calder.

 

In a statement issued May 9, Florida HBPA  president Phil Combest said: "I have to believe we're closer to an agreement than we've ever been.”

 

At Florida pari-mutuels, net slot machine revenues are the money that players put into machines minus payouts to players and promotional credits.

 

Calder has 1,170 Las Vegas-style slot machines in its casino that  is  adjacent to its racing  building,  Gulfstream, in Hallandale Beach,  has 875 of those machines in the two  casino rooms in its racing building.

 

Gulfstream is  on pace to generate about $49 million in net  slots  revenues during the current fiscal year, which will end this June 39.  That is similar to fiscal 2012-2013  when that total was $48.7 million.

 

Over the course of 150 race days, approximately Calder’s current annual schedule, the $1.5 million decrease would amount  to about $10,000 less in money for purses each day.  In recent weeks, Calder has  been  racing Fridays through  Sundays, with  eight races per day and average daily purses of about $110,000.

 

Of  the remaining $7.5 million, it is likely  that some money would be put into purses at Gulfstream  as well  as into the 40 race days at Calder.

 

The catalyst for head-to-head racing year-round was Gulfstream’s decision  to keep its winter  racing and add weekends from April through November.  Calder declined to  give up any of its traditional  weekend dates.

 

One result has been  a huge Gulfstream lead in handle--on-track and other sources such as simulcasts and on-line betting.

 

Over the May 9-11 weekend, Gulfstream had 25 races and Calder had 24 races over the three days.  Gulfstream’s  average daily all-sources  handle of $4.0 million  was 5.3 times greater than  Calder’s  $753,000 average, according  to Equibase Co. charts.

How our Strategy Led to a Winning Derby Exacta Wager

by Jim Freer

Inside Florida Horse Racing Hits Derby Exacta

Sunday, May 4  - Anyone who followed  Inside Florida Horse Racing’s advice posted yesterday hit the pricey exacta wager in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby

The combination of California Chrome and second-place finisher Commanding Curve paid $340 on a $2 bet and  $170 on a $1 bet.

That was part of our $1 exacta box  with five horses, for a $20 bet.  The horses were Danza, California Chrome, Dance With Fate, Commanding Curve and Ride on Curlin.

That was our main selection, among three $1 exactas - our only recommended bets. The other two bets, for $12 and $10,  did not have the winning combination.

Our total recommended outlay of $42 produced a payoff of $170 - a four-fold return on investment.

California Chrome was the 5-2 favorite in  the 19-horse field.  Commanding Curve was sent off at 37-1, the third highest odds  in the race.

California Chrome and Dance With Fate were our two key horses. Commanding  Curve was among several horses that we thought would be passing tired rivals in the stretch.

Commanding Curve proved us correct.   He rallied from 18^th after a half mile and finished within 1 ¾ lengths of California Chrome.

The first four finishers were: California Chrome,  Commanding Curve,  Danza and Wicked Strong.

Our  prediction  was: Dance With Fate, California Chrome, Ride on Curlin and Commanding  Curve.  They finished sixth, first, seventh  and second respectively.

 Danza and Wicked Strong were the top finishers among the nine Kentucky Derby horses that ran at Gulfstream Park this season.

On Monday, we will review the performance of Florida  horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby and take an early look at the Preakness Stakes that will be run May 17th at Pimlico in Baltimore.

Our Kentucky Derby Predictions

by Jim Freer                 3 May 2014

 

Dance With Fate the Pick to Win Derby

Among the myriad of ways to handicap today’s Kentucky Derby, it  all comes back to “meltdown.”

As many as six horses can be expected to go out fast and battle for the lead through a scorching half mile and first mile.

That always sets a 1 ¼ mile race up for a win by a deep closer or  by a stalker whose jockey is savvy enough to keep his pack animal from joining the first flight.

It  also is a good  set-up for plodders and  for one-run longshots who will pass tired horses coming  down  the  long Churchill Downs stretch and finish in  the superfecta.

Last year plodder Golden Soul, at 34-1, finished second to the favorite Orb

With that strategy as a starting point, the closer Dance With Fate is our pick  to  win the Derby.

Dance With  Fate is coming  off a  stirring come-from-behind win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12.

The knock on Dance With Fate is that he has done his best racing on synthetic tracks, like  at  Keeneland.

However, he also finished second in the Frontrunner (Grade 1)  at 1 1/16 miles  on dirt at Santa Anita  last  Sept. 28.

He  has  always trained well on dirt, and  seems comfortable training at Churchill Downs.

California Chrome, the favorite, is our  pick  to  finish second and is the other key horse  in our exacta boxes.

Our other horses are a mixture of stalkers, closers and plodders.

Our only  speed horse  is Wildcat Red,  the colt with a  sprinter’s  pedigree who was the star of this  year’s  Gulfstream Park meet.

We  have  covered all of Wildcat Red 's races and have come  to regard him as  a  horse who will not give up coming down the stretch.

Here are the  horses we  recommend for consideration in exacta bets:

4 -- Danza
5 -- California Chrome
8 -- General a  Rod
10-- Wildcat Red
12 --  Dance  With  Fate
14 -- Medal  Count
16 -- Intense Holiday
17--  Commanding Curve
18 -- Candy Boy
19 -- Ride on Curlin
20 -- Wicked Strong  :
 
Suggested bets:

* $1 exacta box -- 5 horses, $20

4  5  12  17  19

* $1 exacta box -- 4 horses, $12

5 12  16  20

*  $1 exacta part wheel  -- $14

Win  --   5    12

Place --   5  8  10  12 14  16  18  20

Predicted order of  finish:

1. Dance  With Fate

2. California Chrome

3. Ride on Curlin

4. Commanding Curve

5. Wildcat Red

Much luck wished to our readers at Inside Florida Horse Racing 

 

 

.