Saturday, May 3, 2014

Our Kentucky Derby Predictions

by Jim Freer                 3 May 2014
Dance With Fate the Pick to Win Derby

Among the myriad of ways to handicap today’s Kentucky Derby, it  all comes back to “meltdown.”

As many as six horses can be expected to go out fast and battle for the lead through a scorching half mile and first mile.

That always sets a 1 ¼ mile race up for a win by a deep closer or  by a stalker whose jockey is savvy enough to keep his pack animal from joining the first flight.

It  also is a good  set-up for plodders and  for one-run longshots who will pass tired horses coming  down  the  long Churchill Downs stretch and finish in  the superfecta.

Last year plodder Golden Soul, at 34-1, finished second to the favorite Orb

With that strategy as a starting point, the closer Dance With Fate is our pick  to  win the Derby.

Dance With  Fate is coming  off a  stirring come-from-behind win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12.

The knock on Dance With Fate is that he has done his best racing on synthetic tracks, like  at  Keeneland.

However, he also finished second in the Frontrunner (Grade 1)  at 1 1/16 miles  on dirt at Santa Anita  last  Sept. 28.

He  has  always trained well on dirt, and  seems comfortable training at Churchill Downs.

California Chrome, the favorite, is our  pick  to  finish second and is the other key horse  in our exacta boxes.

Our other horses are a mixture of stalkers, closers and plodders.

Our only  speed horse  is Wildcat Red,  the colt with a  sprinter’s  pedigree who was the star of this  year’s  Gulfstream Park meet.

We  have  covered all of Wildcat Red 's races and have come  to regard him as  a  horse who will not give up coming down the stretch.

Here are the  horses we  recommend for consideration in exacta bets:
4 -- Danza
5 -- California Chrome
8 -- General a  Rod
10-- Wildcat Red
12 --  Dance  With  Fate
14 -- Medal  Count
16 -- Intense Holiday
17--  Commanding Curve
18 -- Candy Boy
19 -- Ride on Curlin
20 -- Wicked Strong  :
Suggested bets:

* $1 exacta box -- 5 horses, $20

5  12  17  19

* $1 exacta box -- 4 horses, $12

5 12  16  20

*  $1 exacta part wheel  -- $14

Win  --   5    12

Place --   5  8  10  12 14  16  18  20

Predicted order of  finish:

1. Dance  With Fate

2. California Chrome

3. Ride on Curlin

4. Commanding Curve

5. Wildcat Red

Much luck wished to our readers at Inside Florida Horse Racing 




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