Our Kentucky Derby Predictions

by Jim Freer                 3 May 2014

 

Dance With Fate the Pick to Win Derby

Among the myriad of ways to handicap today’s Kentucky Derby, it  all comes back to “meltdown.”

As many as six horses can be expected to go out fast and battle for the lead through a scorching half mile and first mile.

That always sets a 1 ¼ mile race up for a win by a deep closer or  by a stalker whose jockey is savvy enough to keep his pack animal from joining the first flight.

It  also is a good  set-up for plodders and  for one-run longshots who will pass tired horses coming  down  the  long Churchill Downs stretch and finish in  the superfecta.

Last year plodder Golden Soul, at 34-1, finished second to the favorite Orb

With that strategy as a starting point, the closer Dance With Fate is our pick  to  win the Derby.

Dance With  Fate is coming  off a  stirring come-from-behind win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12.

The knock on Dance With Fate is that he has done his best racing on synthetic tracks, like  at  Keeneland.

However, he also finished second in the Frontrunner (Grade 1)  at 1 1/16 miles  on dirt at Santa Anita  last  Sept. 28.

He  has  always trained well on dirt, and  seems comfortable training at Churchill Downs.

California Chrome, the favorite, is our  pick  to  finish second and is the other key horse  in our exacta boxes.

Our other horses are a mixture of stalkers, closers and plodders.

Our only  speed horse  is Wildcat Red,  the colt with a  sprinter’s  pedigree who was the star of this  year’s  Gulfstream Park meet.

We  have  covered all of Wildcat Red 's races and have come  to regard him as  a  horse who will not give up coming down the stretch.

Here are the  horses we  recommend for consideration in exacta bets:

4 -- Danza
5 -- California Chrome
8 -- General a  Rod
10-- Wildcat Red
12 --  Dance  With  Fate
14 -- Medal  Count
16 -- Intense Holiday
17--  Commanding Curve
18 -- Candy Boy
19 -- Ride on Curlin
20 -- Wicked Strong  :
 
Suggested bets:

* $1 exacta box -- 5 horses, $20

4  5  12  17  19

* $1 exacta box -- 4 horses, $12

5 12  16  20

*  $1 exacta part wheel  -- $14

Win  --   5    12

Place --   5  8  10  12 14  16  18  20

Predicted order of  finish:

1. Dance  With Fate

2. California Chrome

3. Ride on Curlin

4. Commanding Curve

5. Wildcat Red

Much luck wished to our readers at Inside Florida Horse Racing 

 

 

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Florida Derby Day Preview

by Jim Freer

Saturday,  March 29, 9:30 a.m.

Gulfstream Park will run its $1 million Florida  Derby  today, with periods of rain in the forecast for late morning and the afternoon.

But barring any mid-day downpours, a crowd of 15,000 or more could jam the track in Hallandale Beach. If the main track is fast and races stay on the turf, fans on site will no doubt join simulcast and ADW bettors in plunging more than $20 million on Gulfstream’s 14 races. Eight of the races are stakes.

The first post is at 12 noon, and to find parking  and a place to stand, it is advisable to get to Gulfstream as early as possible. All seats facing the track and all restaurant seats have been sold.

The Florida Derby (Grade 1) is 1-1/8 miles  for 3-year-olds. It is the14^th race with scheduled post time of 6:48 p.m. ET.

General a  Rod is our pick to win the Florida Derby.

Inside Florida Horse Racing will be at Gulfstream this afternoon. We will have periodic reports on the races, the weather, and the overall scene at Gulfstream.

 

 

Kaplan Adds East Hall to Florida Derby Mix

by Jim Freer

 

Friday, March 28, '14

Early this week, trainer Bill Kaplan was planning that East Hall’s next race would be the Bluegrass Stakes (Grade 1) at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.,on April 12.

“(Then) when I saw that this race might have a short field, I decided to keep him home and race him here,” Kaplan said following Wednesday’s post position draw for this Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (Grade 1).

East Hall drew post five and is among eight entrants for the 1 1/8 mile stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park, where Kaplan stables his horses. East Hall, a gelding with a late-running style, has finished third at one mile and fourth at 1 1/16 miles in Gulfstream stakes this year. 

Now, Kaplan thinks the son of  Graeme Hall and mare East Long Lake is ready to show that he will get better as the races get longer.

 Kaplan’s goal for East Hall in the Florida Derby is the same as it would have been in  the $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes: pass some horses down the stretch to finish  third or better, to earn a big check and some qualifying points for the 1-¼ mile Kentucky Derby on May 3rd.

The Florida Derby and Bluegrass both have 100 Kentucky Derby points for the winner. Second through fourth are worth 40, 20 and 10 points respectively.

East Hall has five points. A third place finish on Saturday would probably be enough to earn one of the 20 spots in the Kentucky Derby field.

East Hall gained his five points on Feb. 22 with an impressive fourth place finish in a 12-horse field in the 1-1/16 mile Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. East Hall was 72-1 in the Fountain of Youth.

He is 20-1in the morning line for the Florida Derby. He will face a field headed by Wildcat Red and General a Rod, two horses that have beaten him twice this year, and the likely favorite Cairo Prince.

While East Hall will again be a longshot for WPS betting, he likely will be on the bottom of many bettors’ trifecta and superfecta tickets.

One handicapping angle is that if the Florida  Derby is a speed duel, one or more lower odds horses could tire and East Hall could join Cairo Prince in passing them. Stakes newcomer Constitution, General a Rod and Wildcat Red all have early speed.

The Florida Derby will be East Hall’s fifth race this year - all with Kaplan’s go-to jockey Juan Leyva.

On Jan. 1, General a Rod beat Wildcat Red by a head after a thrilling stretch duel in the one mile Gulfstream Park Derby. East Hall finished third by  2-¼ lengths.

East Hall had another third place finish in his next start - the 1-1/16 mile Champali at the Ocala Training Center’s annual race day for Florida-breds.

The Fountain of Youth on Feb. 22 was a classic example of the speed bias at Gulfstream. The race also showed the big disadvantage of being in outside posts in Gulfstream’s 1-1/8 mile dirt races, where it is only about 100 yards from the gate to the start of the first turn.

Wildcat Red and General a Rod again showed their grit and talent. But their principal rival, deep closer Top Billing was in post 11. East Hall drew post 12.

Joel Rosario on Top Billing and Leyva on East Hall were forced to angle in at the start to avoid being caught wide on the turn.   That left them farther behind than usual. Wildcat Red and General a Rod hooked up head-to-head after a quarter mile and stayed that way until the finish - with Wildcat Red winning in the photo.

Top Billing and East Hall were last and next to last with a half mile left to run. The more accomplished Top Billing moved first and wound up third by two lengths. East Hall had to weave through traffic and finished four lengths behind Top Billing.

Kaplan is among those who have noted that while Top Billing was gaining on the leaders in the final furlong he was not putting any extra distance between himself and East Hall.

On March 8, Top Billing cracked a bone in one of his legs while training. He underwent surgery that trainer Shug McGaughey said was successful, and could resume training this summer.

Gulfstream-based trainers often take 3-year-olds that are closers to other tracks for Kentucky Derby preps. 

On March 9, Kaplan ran East Hall in the 1 1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2) at  Tampa  Bay Downs. East Hall apparently did not take to that track that is deeper than Gulfstream. He finished eighth, and amid close traffic of horses he sustained what Kaplan said was a minor foot injury that is now healed. 

H. Jack Hendricks and Roger Justice own East Hall. Kaplan is hoping that East Hall will be the third horse he runs in a Kentucky Derby. In the 2007 race at Churchill Downs he sent out Imawildandcrazyguy to a fourth place finish and Storm in May to a 16^th place finish.

The horse Kaplan and others affectionately called “the crazy guy” was in 20^th and last place after three-quarters of a mile. He staged a huge rally and finished just one-half length behind Curlin, who went on to win that year’s Preakness Stakes and the 2007 and 2008 Eclipse Awards as Horse of the Year.

Kaplan said Imawildandcrazyguy was “a plodder,” whereas East Hall has more speed for a sustained run and “has the cardiovascular to run all day.” East Hall’s sire Graeme Hall and his maternal grandsire Sultry Song each won multiple graded stakes at 1-1/8 miles.

 

 

Cairo Prince Heads Eight-Horse Florida Derby Field

by Jim Freer

Thursday, March 27th -- The highly touted Cairo Prince and the familiar rivals Wildcat Red and General a Rod will head an eight-horse field in Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby  (Grade 1) at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.

Cairo Prince was made the 9-5 morning line favorite by Gulfstream handicapper and  line-maker Ron Nicoletti following Wednesday's post position draw, which I attended.

Wildcat Red is listed at 3-1 and General a Rod is 7-2.

Spot, Constitution, East Hall, Matador and Allstar are the remaining horses in the field.

The 1  1/8 mile stakes for  3-year-olds  is  a major prep race for the Kentucky Derby on May  3rd. The Florida Derby will be Cairo  Prince's first race since Jan. 25 when he won the 1- 1/16 mile Holy Bull (Grade 2) at Gulfstream.

He has won three of his four career starts, and is among the top three on most racing  analysts' lists of Kentucky Derby contenders. Kiaran McLaughlin trains Cairo Prince. Luis  Saez, who has ridden the colt in all of his previous starts, has the  mount.

Wildcat Red and General a Rod have raced twice at Gulfstream this year, and have a split in two photo finishes after lengthy stretch duels. On Jan. 1st, General a  Rod won by a head in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby.

On Feb. 22nd, Wildcat Red won by a head in the 1-1/16 mile Fountain of Youth (Grade 2). Jose Garoffalo trains Wildcat Red and has John Velazquez riding on Saturday. Mike Maker trains General a Rod, who will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

Wildcat Red and General a Rod have early speed. So does Constitution, who is  unbeaten in two starts  and making his stakes debut. Cairo Prince probably will be stalking a fast  pace.  

Post positions could be very important, because of the speed factor and the distance  of  only  about 100 yards from the starting gate to the bend at the first turn. Wildcat Red has the rail post. With Velazquez riding, he should be able to get a clean break from the gate and have an inside trip.Cairo Prince has post three, Constitution has post four and General a  Rod has post  six.

"We will be outside the speed, and that gives us some options,"  Maker said of possible tactics.

The Florida Derby will be the 14^th and final race on Gulfstream’s Saturday card, with a scheduled post time of 6:48 p.m. Gulfstream will have seven other stakes races also.

The Florida Derby will be telecast live on the NBC Sports cable channel.