Friday, June 6, 2014

All Signs Point to Chrome Shining Brightly

by Jim Freer

Friday, June 6 - It seems like it will be downright un-American to root against California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

It also might be downright foolish to bet against the colt  and  his colorful owners as he attempts to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

California Chrome by all accounts still appears fresh following his wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, which earned him a bandwagon of followers and accolades as the latest “America’s Horse.”  In those two victories, Victor Espinoza had  him geared down near the finish.  He should have gas in his tank for the 1 ½ mile distance, and should get another trip that would enable him to hold  off any closers.

We will post our Belmont Stakes predictions and suggested bets on Saturday morning. A starting point for our handicapping is that California Chrome will again control the race, but in  a slightly different way. Unlike the Kentucky Derby and  Preakness, the Belmont does not have entrants that will likely stage  a speed duel that California Chrome will stalk for  the first  mile or so.
Instead, the versatile California Chrome could  take an early lead and with his tactical speed prove difficult to catch. 

Tonalist and  Samraat are the other horses that  could  inherit the early lead by default. We are among those who expect that neither will be able  to stay with California Chrome after the field comes out of the final turn.

Samraat joined California Chrome in tracking the pace in the Derby, and held on to finish fifth. 
The lightly-raced Tonalist was a fast winner of the 1-1/8 mile Peter  Pan at  Belmont on May  10.  He did  that  on a sloppy track that apparently didn’t suit some rivals.  On Saturday, the sandy and deep Belmont track will be fast and the competition will be tougher.

So with California Chrome almost certain  to be less than even money, we are planning a strategy of exotic bets with  him on top - and then determining the order of  finish underneath  him in the trifecta and superfecta wagers.

It also would be wise to bet some exacta boxes - including one with California Chrome and three other horses that would pay off well if two of the others finish first and second.

We are leaning toward the closers Commanding Curve,  Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong who have all had one strong Triple Crown race.  Medal Count, Tonalist, General a Rod and  Samraat also should be considered for the trifecta and superfecta.
Here are pros and cons of several contenders:
* Commanding Curve - He finished second in the Kentucky  Derby at 37-1, running a fast closing quarter mile as  he surged past tiring horses without  posing a threat to California Chrome.  He did not run in the Preakness, and thus will be fresh in the Belmont. There are still plenty of doubters - thus presenting another betting opportunity.

 * Ride on Curlin - His second  place run in the Preakness was as impressive as  Commanding Curve in the Derby. One concern is that the Belmont will be his fourth  race since April 12.  But he reportedly is looking strong, and might have the best chance to upset California Chrome. He will have his fifth jockey in as many races in John Velazquez.  Joel Rosario, who rode him  in the Preakness, is staying on Tonalist.
* Wicked Strong - He finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby  despite a troubled trip.  This aptly named high - strung colt  has  big upside potential, or could run a clunker.

Note - In our combined Kentucky Derby / Preakness selections we wagered $88 for a return of $235.60. As part of a  hedging  strategy, we hit the $1 exacta for $170 in the Derby and  the $1 trifecta for a $38 payoff in the Preakness.

Some History
California Chrome is the ninth horse since 1997 that has won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.  Seven of  the eight other horses lost the Belmont - with six of them leading or in contention as the field came out of the final turn.

In 2008,  Big Brown was boxed in early and then was unable to make his expected move around the final turn. Jockey  Kent Desormeaux  then pulled Big Brown up for a Did Not Finish  that was unpopular and is still controversial.

In 2012, I’ll Have Another did not  run in the Belmont because of  a career-ending  injury that his connections discovered  the day before the race.

Belmont Park’s dirt track is 1 ½ miles.  It  is 1,097 feet (about 360 yards) from the end of the  far turn to the finish line.  The  Belmont Stakes is one lap. 
Do the math, and you’ll find that the horses will have run 1 ¼ miles - the Kentucky Derby distance, when  they  are coming out of the turn.
California Chrome and the other horses will be entering  some un-chartered waters; or make that dirt.
For  various reasons, these recent  Kentucky Derby-Preakness winners came up short in the Belmont: Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War  Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003) and Smarty Jones (2004).

We expect that California Chrome will “outrun his pedigree,” handle the added distance and end the 36-year Triple Crown drought.

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